Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Speculators and Eve

As everyone has already read, CCP will be introducing a new currency into eve, Aurum.  Aurum will be acquired by using a plex and converting it into Aurum.  The Aurum, in turn, are then used to buy specialty items (vanity only at this point), which can be used on your character or sold for isk. 

Anyone looking at the Plex market lately will be able to see the effect of speculators purchasing plex now in expectation of a future demand spike with the introduction of Aurum at the end of the month.  This speculation, in turn, increases current demand (by the speculators), which starts a rapid increase in price. 

When Aurum are officially introduced, it will be interesting to see the effect on the plex price, to see if the upward trend continues, or if the speculators are overestimating the new price point and creating a plex bubble.  I originally bought into the plex market weeks ago, expecting a patch increase in plex demand from people re-subbing to see new things.  The aurum announcement has significantly strengthened my position.  However, as someone sitting on over 30b in plex, I am incredibly concerned about the prices I'm seeing now and the trend, as too much of a rise in plex prices could lead to CCP starting to manipulate the market.  Luckily, Plex is a fairly responsive market, with people increasing supply to make some isk once the price rises high enough. Hopefully, this will exert sufficient downward pressure on the price and keep CCP from getting involved.

One of the great things about eve is the player driven market, and its always an education to track what is happening. Time can only tell what the final price point will be after the market settles, but it'll be fun to watch.

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